Long-term outcomes and predictive ability of non-invasive scoring systems in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

[Background & Aims] Non-invasive scoring systems (NSS) are used to identify patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) who are at risk of advanced fibrosis, but their reliability in predicting long-term outcomes for hepatic/extrahepatic complications or death and their concordance in cross-sectional and longitudinal risk stratification remain uncertain.[Methods] The most common NSS (NFS, FIB-4, BARD, APRI) and the Hepamet fibrosis score (HFS) were assessed in 1,173 European patients with NAFLD from tertiary centres. Performance for fibrosis risk stratification and for the prediction of long-term hepatic/extrahepatic events, hepatocarcinoma (HCC) and overall mortality were evaluated in terms of AUC and Harrell’s c-index. For longitudinal data, NSS-based Cox proportional hazard models were trained on the whole cohort with repeated 5-fold cross-validation, sampling for testing from the 607 patients with all NSS available.[Results] Cross-sectional analysis revealed HFS as the best performer for the identification of significant (F0-1 vs. F2-4, AUC = 0.758) and advanced (F0-2 vs. F3-4, AUC = 0.805) fibrosis, while NFS and FIB-4 showed the best performance for detecting histological cirrhosis (range AUCs 0.85-0.88). Considering longitudinal data (follow-up between 62 and 110 months), NFS and FIB-4 were the best at predicting liver-related events (c-indices>0.7), NFS for HCC (c-index = 0.9 on average), and FIB-4 and HFS for overall mortality (c-indices >0.8). All NSS showed limited performance (c-indices <0.7) for extrahepatic events.[Conclusions] Overall, NFS, HFS and FIB-4 outperformed APRI and BARD for both cross-sectional identification of fibrosis and prediction of long-term outcomes, confirming that they are useful tools for the clinical management of patients with NAFLD at increased risk of fibrosis and liver-related complications or death.[Lay summary] Non-invasive scoring systems are increasingly being used in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease to identify those at risk of advanced fibrosis and hence clinical complications. Herein, we compared various non-invasive scoring systems and identified those that were best at identifying risk, as well as those that were best for the prediction of long-term outcomes, such as liver-related events, liver cancer and death.This study has been supported by the EPoS (Elucidating Pathways of Steatohepatitis) consortium funded by the Horizon 2020 Framework Program of the European Union under Grant Agreement 634413 and the Newcastle NIHR Biomedical Research Centre. The authors are contributing members of The European NAFLD Registry. The study was also supported by the Italian Ministry of Health, grant RF-2016-02364358 (Ricerca Finalizzata, Ministero della Salute), and the Italian Ministry for Education, University and Research (Ministero dell’Istruzione, dell’Università e della Ricerca - MIUR) under the programme “Dipartimenti di Eccellenza 2018 – 2022” Project code D15D18000410001.Peer reviewe

MAFLD AND NAFLD: is there the need for redefining the risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality?

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common liver disease worldwide and is characterized by a high burden of metabolic alterations. It exposes patients to increased morbidity and mortality, mostly driven by cardiovascular (CV) complications. Despite its large use, the nomenclature NAFLD has some limitations, due to the exclusion of patients with hepatic fat and concomitant other liver diseases or moderate alcohol consumption possibly contributing to hepatic damage. Therefore, a new and more inclusive definition of fatty liver has recently been proposed, namely metabolic associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD). It comprises patients with hepatic steatosis and associated metabolic comorbidities, without exclusion of other liver diseases. As for the nature of the new definition of MAFLD, it could be speculated that an increased risk of cardiovascular complications should be expected. Therefore, our review aims at answering the question about possible differences in cardiovascular risk and mortality in patients with NAFLD compared to MAFLD. We selected 8 studies out of 1130 by searching in the PubMed database. Data from literature seem to report an increased risk of CV events and mortality in patients affected by MAFLD compared to NAFLD, possibly due to the metabolic burden and coexistence of other liver diseases typical of MAFLD. However, further prospective studies are warranted to confirm this preliminary hypothesis

Interaction between Lifestyle Changes and PNPLA3 Genotype in NAFLD Patients during the COVID-19 Lockdown

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown dramatically changed people’s lifestyles. Diet, physical activity, and the PNPLA3 gene are known risk factors for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Aim: To evaluate changes in metabolic and hepatic disease in NAFLD patients after the COVID-19 lockdown. Three hundred and fifty seven NAFLD patients were enrolled, all previously instructed to follow a Mediterranean diet (MD). Anthropometric, metabolic, and laboratory data were collected before the COVID-19 lockdown in Italy and 6 months apart, along with ultrasound (US) steatosis grading and information about adherence to MD and physical activity (PA). In 188 patients, PNPLA3 genotyping was performed. After the lockdown, 48% of patients gained weight, while 16% had a worsened steatosis grade. Weight gain was associated with poor adherence to MD (p = 0.005), reduced PA (p = 0.03), and increased prevalence of PNPLA3 GG (p = 0.04). At multivariate analysis (corrected for age, sex, MD, PA, and PNPLA3 GG), only PNPLA3 remained independently associated with weight gain (p = 0.04), which was also associated with worsened glycemia (p = 0.002) and transaminases (p = 0.02). During lockdown, due to a dramatic change in lifestyles, half of our cohort of NAFLD patients gained weight, with a worsening of metabolic and hepatologic features. Interestingly, the PNPLA3 GG genotype nullified the effect of lifestyle and emerged as an independent risk factor for weight gain, opening new perspectives in NAFLD patient care

Long-term outcomes and predictive ability of non-invasive scoring systems in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Background &amp; Aims: Non-invasive scoring systems (NSS) are used to identify patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) who are at risk of advanced fibrosis, but their reliability in predicting long-term outcomes for hepatic/extrahepatic complications or death and their concordance in cross-sectional and longitudinal risk stratification remain uncertain. Methods: The most common NSS (NFS, FIB-4, BARD, APRI) and the Hepamet fibrosis score (HFS) were assessed in 1,173 European patients with NAFLD from tertiary centres. Performance for fibrosis risk stratification and for the prediction of long-term hepatic/extrahepatic events, hepatocarcinoma (HCC) and overall mortality were evaluated in terms of AUC and Harrell's c-index. For longitudinal data, NSS-based Cox proportional hazard models were trained on the whole cohort with repeated 5-fold cross-validation, sampling for testing from the 607 patients with all NSS available. Results: Cross-sectional analysis revealed HFS as the best performer for the identification of significant (F0-1 vs. F2-4, AUC = 0.758) and advanced (F0-2 vs. F3-4, AUC = 0.805) fibrosis, while NFS and FIB-4 showed the best performance for detecting histological cirrhosis (range AUCs 0.85-0.88). Considering longitudinal data (follow-up between 62 and 110 months), NFS and FIB-4 were the best at predicting liver-related events (c-indices&gt;0.7), NFS for HCC (c-index = 0.9 on average), and FIB-4 and HFS for overall mortality (c-indices &gt;0.8). All NSS showed limited performance (c-indices &lt;0.7) for extrahepatic events. Conclusions: Overall, NFS, HFS and FIB-4 outperformed APRI and BARD for both cross-sectional identification of fibrosis and prediction of long-term outcomes, confirming that they are useful tools for the clinical management of patients with NAFLD at increased risk of fibrosis and liver-related complications or death. Lay summary: Non-invasive scoring systems are increasingly being used in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease to identify those at risk of advanced fibrosis and hence clinical complications. Herein, we compared various non-invasive scoring systems and identified those that were best at identifying risk, as well as those that were best for the prediction of long-term outcomes, such as liver-related events, liver cancer and death